NYT - Economy

Bloomberg View

Calculated Risk

  • !Schedule for Week of December 17th
    The key economic reports this week are November housing starts, new home sales and existing home sales.  Other key reports include the third estimate of Q3 GDP, and Personal Income & Outlays for November.For manufacturing, the December Philly Fed an…
    - 23 hours ago 16 Dec 17, 1:13pm -
  • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
    A short note from housing economist Tom Lawler:"Based on what I've seen so far, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in November."CR Note: Exi…
    - 2 days ago 15 Dec 17, 10:42pm -
  • Oil Rigs "The Calm before the Storm"
    A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Dec 15, 2017:• Rigs overall continue in recovery mode• Total US oil rigs were down 4 to 747• Horizontal oil rigs, however, were up 2 to 654...• Expect the rig count to surg…
    - 2 days ago 15 Dec 17, 7:50pm -
  • Q4 GDP Forecasts
    From Merrill Lynch:The strong retail sales data provided a 0.3pp boost to our 4Q GDP tracking estimate, bringing it up to 2.4%.emphasis addedFrom the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) i…
    - 2 days ago 15 Dec 17, 5:01pm -
  • Industrial Production Increased 0.2% in November
    From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production moved up 0.2 percent in November after posting an upwardly revised increase of 1.2 percent in October. Manufacturing production also rose 0.2 percent in November, its…
    - 2 days ago 15 Dec 17, 2:23pm -

The Undercover Economist

  • Why the robot boost is yet to arrive
    To adapt a 30-year-old quip from the great economist Robert Solow: you can see the robots everywhere except in the productivity statistics. This fact has been puzzling me for a few years now. Productivity growth is disappointing — especially but no…
    - 2 days ago 15 Dec 17, 12:55pm -
  • The dangers of dark nudging
    “If you want people to do the right thing, make it easy.” That is the simplest possible summary of Nudge (UK) (US) by Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler. We are all fallible creatures, and so benevolent policymakers need to make sure that the path…
    - 9 days ago 8 Dec 17, 1:07pm -
  • Curious books
    I’ve written recently about how much I’ve been enjoying Soonish (UK) (US) by Kelly and Zach Weinersmith, a highly amusing exploration of the latest technologies from satellite launch vehicles to 3D printed houses to gene therapy to self-organis…
    - 13 days ago 4 Dec 17, 4:48pm -
  • A way to poke Facebook off its uncontested perch
    We need to talk about Facebook. Google (or Alphabet, if you prefer) is more ubiquitous; Apple makes more money; Amazon is a more obvious threat to the bricks-and-mortar economy; yet there is something uniquely troubling about the social media leviath…
    - 16 days ago 1 Dec 17, 1:03pm -
  • What AlphaGo Zero teaches us about what’s going wrong with innovation
    It is hard not to be impressed — and perhaps a little alarmed — by the progression. In 1997, IBM’s supercomputer Deep Blue beat the world’s greatest chess player, Garry Kasparov. It was a hugely expensive piece of hardware, closely tended and…
    - 23 days ago 24 Nov 17, 12:09pm -

Marginal Revolution

  • !Do High School Sports Build or Reveal Character?
    Michael R. Ransom and Tyler Ransom have a new paper on this question: We examine the extent to which participation in high school athletics has beneficial effects on future education, labor market, and health outcomes. Due to the absence of plausible…
    - 5 hours ago 17 Dec 17, 6:46am -
  • !“How can Bitcoin be a good store of value if its price is so volatile?”
    I am oh so reluctant to repost old material, which is how bloggers fall from grace.  Nonetheless I don’t think I can do better than to repeat my take from 2013: “What a day: Bitcoin is now 44 percent off its intraday high of $266. Maybe it’s i…
    - 7 hours ago 17 Dec 17, 5:21am -
  • !The seven forbidden words?
    Policy analysts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta were told of the list of forbidden words at a meeting Thursday with senior CDC officials who oversee the budget, according to an analyst who took part in the 90-minute bri…
    - 17 hours ago 16 Dec 17, 6:53pm -
  • !Model this for Sri Lanka Indian Coasean spite value
    India is buying Sri Lanka’s second-largest airport, despite it only handling a dozen passengers a day. China recently took control of a nearby port that opens up significant trade routes, and India is worried about China’s growing role in the Ind…
    - 19 hours ago 16 Dec 17, 4:49pm -
  • Sam Altman and the fear of political correctness
    Many are abuzz over Sam Altman’s short and politically incorrect blog post: Earlier this year, I noticed something in China that really surprised me.  I realized I felt more comfortable discussing controversial ideas in Beijing than in San Francis…
    - 1 day ago 16 Dec 17, 6:56am -

Beat The Press

Liberty Street Economics

  • Political Polarization in Consumer Expectations
    Following the 2016 presidential election, as noted on this blog and many other outlets, Americans’ political and economic outlook changed dramatically depending on partisan affiliation. Immediately after the election, Republicans became substantial…
    - 2 days ago 15 Dec 17, 4:00pm -
  • How Much Is Priced In? Market Expectations for FOMC Rate Hikes from Different Angles
    Ryan Bush, Marco Huwiler, Eric LeSueur, and Giorgio Topa It is essential for policymakers and financial market participants to understand market expectations for the path...
    - 17 days ago 30 Nov 17, 12:00pm -
  • Did Investor Sentiment Affect Credit Risk around the 2016 Election?
    Immediately following the presidential election of 2016, both consumer and investor sentiments were buoyant and financial markets boomed.
    - 18 days ago 29 Nov 17, 12:00pm -
  • The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast–November 2017
    This post presents our quarterly update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since August 2017.
    - 19 days ago 28 Nov 17, 12:00pm -
  • What Makes a Safe Asset Safe?
    Over the last decade, the concept of “safe assets” has received increasing attention, from regulators and private market participants, as well as researchers. This attention has led to the uncovering of some important details and nuances of what…
    - 20 days ago 27 Nov 17, 12:00pm -


  • Should We Really Behave Like Economists Say We Do? (Rebroadcast)
    Season 7, Episode 12  You have perhaps come across the phrase homo economicus, which describes a model for human behavior as seen through the lens of economics. In this hour, you’ll hear Freakonomics Radio producer Greg Rosalsky embark on a long a…
    - 24 days ago 23 Nov 17, 11:00pm -
  • Is America Ready for a “No-Lose Lottery”? (Update)
    Most people don’t enjoy the simple, boring act of putting money in a savings account. But we do love to play the lottery. So what if you combine the two, creating a new kind of savings account with a lottery payout? The post Is America Ready for a…
    - 24 days ago 23 Nov 17, 4:00am -
  • An Astronaut, a Catalan, and Two Linguists Walk Into a Bar…: TMSIDK Episode 36
    Why New York has skinny skyscrapers, how to weaponize water, and what astronauts talk about in space. John McWhorter is co-host; Bari Weiss is live fact-checker.The post An Astronaut, a Catalan, and Two Linguists Walk Into a Bar…: TMSIDK Episode 3…
    - 27 days ago 20 Nov 17, 1:00am -
  • Why Doesn’t Everyone Get the Flu Vaccine?
    Season 7, Episode 11 This week on Freakonomics Radio: what if there were a small step you could take that would prevent you from getting sick, stop you from missing work, and help ensure you won’t play a part in killing babies, the sick, and the e…
    - 31 days ago 16 Nov 17, 11:00pm -
  • Nurses to the Rescue!
    They are the most-trusted profession in America (and with good reason). They are critical to patient outcomes (especially in primary care). Could the growing army of nurse practitioners be an answer to the doctor shortage? The data say yes but — b…
    - 31 days ago 16 Nov 17, 4:55am -

Conversable Economist

  • Occupational Licensing Under Fire
    Let's be clear: an "occupational license" means that if you don't have the license, you don't have government permission to do the job. If you do the job without such a license, you can be legally punished, even put in jail.There are a number of alte…
    - 2 days ago 15 Dec 17, 2:00pm -
  • Ricardo's Comparative Advantage After Two Centuries
    Two centuries ago in 1817, the great economist David Ricardo published his most prominent work: "On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation." Among many other insights, it's the book that introduced the idea of "comparative advantage" (espec…
    - 3 days ago 14 Dec 17, 4:34pm -
  • Adding Monetary Costs of Lost Lives to the Opioid Crisis
    Sometimes if you can justify putting a bigger dollar sign in front of a problem, then you can also justify giving it more attention. This is a useful function of "The Underestimated Cost of theOpioid Crisis," a report recently published by the Counci…
    - 4 days ago 13 Dec 17, 2:59pm -
  • Snapshots of the US Housing Market: Ten Years Later
    Ten years ago, December 2007, was the start of the Great Recession. Have US housing markets recovered? My go-to source for regular updates on the US housing market is "Housing Markets at a Glance," a monthly chartbook published by the Housing Finance…
    - 5 days ago 12 Dec 17, 4:10pm -
  • Do You Rejoice for China?
    Hereby is an op-ed piece I wrote for the Star Tribune, published on Sunday, December 10."China's rise: The wealth of a nation (not ours)A lot of people, living much better lives, in a land not as influentially far away as it once was. What do we thin…
    - 6 days ago 11 Dec 17, 2:00pm -

The Economist

VOX - CEPR's Policy Portal

  • !Potential economic and social effects of driverless cars
    Driverless vehicles are expected to become a reality on our roads in the near future. This column reviews research into the effects this will have on the economy and on society. New business models for truck operators and delivery companies, commuter…
    - 12 hours ago 17 Dec 17, 12:00am -
  • The economics of the Bitcoin payment system
    Cryptocurrencies have caught the attention of industry, academia, and the public at large. This column analyses an economic model of a cryptocurrency system featuring user-generated transaction fees, focusing on Bitcoin as the leading example. The Bi…
    - 2 days ago 16 Dec 17, 12:00am -
  • Growth of multi-authored journal articles in economics
    Many theories have been posited for the growth in co-authorship in economic research output. This column uses new findings to assess the viability of the different explanations. Lower costs of global communication and increased pressure to produce gr…
    - 2 days ago 16 Dec 17, 12:00am -
  • Confidence, uncertainty and macroeconomic fluctuations
    At an intuitive level, economists and non-economists alike find it plausible that economic sentiment and economic developments are related. This column surveys recent theoretical and empirical work on the role of sentiment as a driver of the business…
    - 3 days ago 15 Dec 17, 12:00am -
  • Labour clauses in trade agreements promote Southern exports to the North
    Protecting workers through the inclusion of labour clauses in trade agreements has become more common since the first such causes were included in NAFTA, but some argue that by increasing labour costs in developing countries, they represent a form of…
    - 3 days ago 15 Dec 17, 12:00am -


  • !Origins of the Entitlement Nightmare, by David Henderson
    Currently, the U.S. federal government spends about $2.4 trillion per year--about 12% of GDP--on entitlement programs. This amounts to $7,500 per person annually. Only 48% of this spending goes to people officially classified as poor. The federal gov…
    - 18 hours ago 16 Dec 17, 6:12pm -
  • Three big natural experiments, by Scott Sumner
    Natural experiments in economics don't occur very often, at least not big ones of the sort that interest macroeconomists like me. But today we had not one but three big natural experiments. One is already concluded; the other two will play out over…
    - 1 day ago 16 Dec 17, 2:38am -
  • Rogoff on How to Deal with Emergencies Without Cash, by David Henderson
    As noted in my previous post, I was discussion leader at a recent colloquium on moving towards a cashless or less-cash society. Here are some quotes from Rogoff, followed by questions I asked.Rogoff:Certainly, a lot of the angst over electronic…
    - 2 days ago 15 Dec 17, 11:06pm -
  • Free Trade Agreements v Unilateral Free Trade, by Contributing Guest
    by Pierre LemieuxIn order to be useful...a free trade agreement must further free trade more than it restricts it through international standards and regulatory harmonization. The current renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (…
    - 2 days ago 15 Dec 17, 3:27pm -
  • Rogoff's Alternative to the Wall, by David Henderson
    Cash also plays a role in the illegal immigration problem that bedevils countries like the United States. It is incredible that some politicians talk seriously about building huge border fences, yet no one seems to realize that a far more humane and…
    - 3 days ago 14 Dec 17, 9:23pm -

Paul Krugman

Economists View

  • Paul Krugman: Republicans Despise the Working Class
    "Their disdain for ordinary working Americans as opposed to investors, heirs, and business owners runs so deep that they can’t contain it": Republicans Despise the Working Class, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: You can always count on Republicans to do.…
    - 2 days ago 15 Dec 17, 7:19pm -
  • Links for 12-15-17
    What Is Bitcoin Really Worth? Don’t Even Ask. - Robert Shiller What Can Central Banks Do To Manage the Next Financial Crisis? - Ben Bernanke How the MillerCoors joint venture changed competition - Microeconomic Insights What Happens if the Tax...
    - 2 days ago 15 Dec 17, 6:48pm -
  • Links for 12-13-17
    Social Security Will Be Solvent for the Rest of the Century – Kevin Drum Thousands will die prematurely if the ACA is repealed - Larry Summers Brad DeLong and Charlie Deist on Austrian Economics - Equitable Growth Scam I Am:...
    - 3 days ago 14 Dec 17, 12:13am -
  • Trump, Macron: Same Fight
    Thomas Piketty: Trump, Macron: same fight. LeMonde: It is customary to contrast Trump and Macron: on one hand the vulgar American businessman with his zenophobic tweets and global warming scepticism; and on the other, the well-educated, enlightened E…
    - 5 days ago 12 Dec 17, 7:02am -
  • Expect the Fed to Stand By Its 2018 Outlook
    Tim Duy: Expect the Fed to Stand By Its 2018 Outlook, by Tim Duy: As the Federal Reserve prepares to hike interest rates at this week’s Open-Market Committee meeting, market participants are bidding up short-term rates -- moving toward the...
    - 6 days ago 11 Dec 17, 7:02pm -

Naked Capitalism