NYT - Economy

Bloomberg View

Calculated Risk

  • !Has Housing Market Activity Peaked?
    Following the release of housing starts this week, Sharon Nunn wrote in the WSJ: Housing Market Stumbles at the Beginning of Summer. She quoted Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics as telling clients: “Housing market activi…
    - 1 hour ago 20 Jul 18, 12:43pm -
  • !Technical Note: Temporary Census Hiring and the Monthly Employment Report
    Most of the temporary hiring for the 2020 Census will happen in March, April and May of 2020. But some minor hiring will happen starting later this year.Here is the historical data on temporary Census hiring since 1990.For the monthly CES employmen…
    - 18 hours ago 19 Jul 18, 8:05pm -
  • !Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreased Year-over-Year
    From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 14 July The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 8-14 July 2018, according to data from STR.In comparison with t…
    - 19 hours ago 19 Jul 18, 7:12pm -
  • !California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 13 Percent YoY in June
    Here are some Bay Area stats from Pacific Union chief economist Selma Hepp: Are Bay Area Housing Markets Getting the Jitters? June’s Median Price Growth Doesn’t Suggest So.• Bay Area home sales dropped by 13 percent year over year in June.• S…
    - 22 hours ago 19 Jul 18, 4:19pm -
  • !Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "Continued to expand" in July
    From the Philly Fed: July 2018 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Regional manufacturing activity continued to expand in July, according to results from this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. All the broad indicators remained posit…
    - 24 hours ago 19 Jul 18, 2:12pm -

The Undercover Economist

  • !The topsy turvy logic of Trump’s trade tirades

    - 3 hours ago 20 Jul 18, 11:07am -
  • Football’s minnows demonstrate how poor countries can catch up
    Is the rest of the world catching up with the leading countries? That depends. If you are talking about economic productivity, the answer is unclear. If you are talking about football results, that is another story. Putting aside football for now (it…
    - 7 days ago 13 Jul 18, 10:58am -
  • The progressive case for auctions for everything
    Korean pop sensations BTS are coming to London in October, which means the Undercover Economist spent a morning recently with multiple browser tabs open, trying in vain to secure tickets from a variety of websites that were claiming to sell them. Gre…
    - 14 days ago 6 Jul 18, 11:06am -
  • A simple way for computers to improve our economic forecasts
    I am not one of those clever people who claims to have seen the 2008 financial crisis coming, but by this time 10 years ago I could see that the fallout was going to be bad. Banking crises are always damaging, and this was a big one. The depth of the…
    - 21 days ago 29 Jun 18, 10:48am -
  • Six unconventional introductions to economics
    My list of five of the best introductions to economics wasn’t exactly the usual suspects, but I wanted to stray a little further off the obvious territory and recommend six books you might want to read to give you an unusual introduction to economi…
    - 25 days ago 25 Jun 18, 5:15pm -

Marginal Revolution

  • !Margaret Thatcher and the size of government
    There are those who still believe that the Thatcher government (1979-1990) rolled back the state and cut taxes.  In fact Thatcherism involved an increase in the proportion of national income passing through the state and an increase in the tax burde…
    - 7 mins ago 20 Jul 18, 1:50pm -
  • !Surveillance sentences to ponder
    One of the surveillance industry’s recent — and much publicised — success stories took place at a pop concert in eastern China. While Jacky Cheung, a Hong Kong pop star (rebranded a “fugitive trapper” by the Chinese media) crooned, cameras…
    - 8 hours ago 20 Jul 18, 6:21am -
  • !How should the Fed respond to Trump’s comments?
    The president tempered his criticism by saying that Chairman Jerome Powell — his own appointee — is a “very good man.” He also stopped short of directly calling on the Fed to stop raising interest rates. “I’m not thrilled,” he said. “…
    - 9 hours ago 20 Jul 18, 4:28am -
  • !Claims about secularization and economic growth
    Damian Ruck, the study’s lead researcher in the University of Bristol Medical School: Population Health Sciences, said: “Our findings show that secularisation precedes economic development and not the other way around. However, we suspect the re…
    - 22 hours ago 19 Jul 18, 4:15pm -
  • !Is Trump a Russian plant?
    Here is my Bloomberg column on that topic.  Excerpt: “But if Trump were in Putin’s pocket, why would he be so nice to him in public? Wouldn’t a real KGB pawn keep a proper distance and play a subtler game?” …Then there is the “hiding in…
    - 24 hours ago 19 Jul 18, 2:04pm -

Beat The Press

Paul Krugman

Economists View

  • Links (7/18/18)
    The G.O.P.’s War on the Poor - Paul Krugman The geography of consumption - VoxEU The Circa-1870 Disjunction Between Production and Distribution - Brad DeLong The Premium for Money-Like Assets - Liberty Street Economics Powell Wants to Create Some M…
    - 2 days ago 18 Jul 18, 5:02pm -
  • Links (7/16/18)
    Benefits, Work, and Poverty - Paul Krugman Trump and Brexit - mainly macro Cyber Instability - Cecchetti & Schoenholtz The Two NATOs - Economic Principals Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Global and US - Tim Taylor Trade agreements and global production -..…
    - 4 days ago 16 Jul 18, 5:23pm -
  • Links (7/13/18)
    For Trump, Failure Is the Only Option - Paul Krugman The Economic Consequences of Trump’s Trade War - Barry Eichengreen Gender Issues: Relatively Recent and Worth Reading... - Brad DeLong Time invested in the past dictates willingness to wait for..…
    - 7 days ago 13 Jul 18, 6:57pm -
  • Links (7/11/18)
    Brexit Meets Gravity - Paul Krugman What determines value? - Growth Economics On class separation - Stumbling and Mumbling Taxing the Intangible Economy - Roger Farmer Trump, Tariffs, Tofu and Tax Cuts - Paul Krugman How To Avoid a Trade...
    - 9 days ago 11 Jul 18, 6:03pm -
  • Links (7/9/18)
    How to Lose a Trade War - Paul Krugman Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad - FRBSF U.S.-China Trade War: How We Got Here - Brad Setser Next Generation Monetary Policy - Miles Kimball Inflation Expectations as a Policy...
    - 11 days ago 9 Jul 18, 8:32pm -

Naked Capitalism

Liberty Street Economics

  • !The Transatlantic Economy Ten Years after the Crisis: Macro-Financial Scenarios and Policy Responses
    “The Transatlantic Economy Ten Years after the Crisis: Macro-Financial Scenarios and Policy Response,” was the focus of a conference, jointly organized by the New York Fed, the European Commission, and the Centre for Economic Policy Research in A…
    - 3 hours ago 20 Jul 18, 11:00am -
  • Just Released: Beige Book Points to Moderate Growth and Tight Labor Markets
    The New York Fed’s latest Beige Book report—based on information collected through July 9—points to sustained moderate growth and tight labor markets in the region. Manufacturers and wholesalers noted a persistent rise in economic activity over…
    - 2 days ago 18 Jul 18, 6:15pm -
  • The Premium for Money-Like Assets
    Several academic papers have documented investors’ willingness to pay a premium to hold money-like assets and focused on its implication for financial stability. In a New York Fed staff report, we estimate such premium using a quasi-natural experim…
    - 2 days ago 18 Jul 18, 11:00am -
  • Tax Reform’s Impact on Bank and Corporate Cyclicality
    The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is expected to increase after-tax profits for most companies, primarily by lowering the top corporate statutory tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent. At the same time, the TCJA provides less favorable treatment of n…
    - 4 days ago 16 Jul 18, 11:00am -
  • The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast–July 2018
    This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since March 2018. As usual, we wish…
    - 7 days ago 13 Jul 18, 11:00am -


  • Should We Really Behave Like Economists Say We Do? (Rebroadcast)
    Season 7, Episode 12  You have perhaps come across the phrase homo economicus, which describes a model for human behavior as seen through the lens of economics. In this hour, you’ll hear Freakonomics Radio producer Greg Rosalsky embark on a long a…
    - 23 Nov 17, 11:00pm -
  • Is America Ready for a “No-Lose Lottery”? (Update)
    Most people don’t enjoy the simple, boring act of putting money in a savings account. But we do love to play the lottery. So what if you combine the two, creating a new kind of savings account with a lottery payout? The post Is America Ready for a…
    - 23 Nov 17, 4:00am -
  • An Astronaut, a Catalan, and Two Linguists Walk Into a Bar…: TMSIDK Episode 36
    Why New York has skinny skyscrapers, how to weaponize water, and what astronauts talk about in space. John McWhorter is co-host; Bari Weiss is live fact-checker.The post An Astronaut, a Catalan, and Two Linguists Walk Into a Bar…: TMSIDK Episode 3…
    - 20 Nov 17, 1:00am -
  • Why Doesn’t Everyone Get the Flu Vaccine?
    Season 7, Episode 11 This week on Freakonomics Radio: what if there were a small step you could take that would prevent you from getting sick, stop you from missing work, and help ensure you won’t play a part in killing babies, the sick, and the e…
    - 16 Nov 17, 11:00pm -
  • Nurses to the Rescue!
    They are the most-trusted profession in America (and with good reason). They are critical to patient outcomes (especially in primary care). Could the growing army of nurse practitioners be an answer to the doctor shortage? The data say yes but — b…
    - 16 Nov 17, 4:55am -

Conversable Economist

  • !Conflict Minerals and Unexpected Tradeoffs
    The cause seemed worthy, and the policy mild. Militia groups in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) were taxing and extorting revenue from those who mined like tin, tungsten, and tantalum. Thus, Section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 requi…
    - 24 hours ago 19 Jul 18, 2:00pm -
  • On Preferring A to B, While Also Preferring B to A
    "In the last quarter-century, one of the most intriguing findings in behavioral science goes under the unlovely name of `preference reversals between joint and separate evaluations of options.' The basic idea is that when people evaluate options A an…
    - 3 days ago 17 Jul 18, 2:30pm -
  • Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Global and US
    US emissions of carbon have been falling, while nations in the Asia-Pacific region have already become the main contributors to the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide. These and other conclusions are apparent from the BP Statistical Review of World E…
    - 4 days ago 16 Jul 18, 2:00pm -
  • Time to Reform Unemployment Insurance
    The best time to fix your roof is when the weather is sunny and warm, not when it's rainy, cold--and actually leaking. In a similar spirit, the best time to fix unemployment insurance is when the unemployment rate is low. Conor McKay, Ethan Pollack,…
    - 7 days ago 13 Jul 18, 2:00pm -
  • China Stops Importing Waste Plastic
    For a few decades now, the US and Europe have been managing their plastic waste by shipping it to China and other countries in east Asia for recycling and reuse. But in the last few years, China has been tightening up what it was willing to import, w…
    - 8 days ago 12 Jul 18, 2:00pm -

The Economist

VOX - CEPR's Policy Portal

  • !Governing a fragmented world economy
    International economic cooperation is in crisis. The global economy faces fragmentation across institutional, economic, and social dimensions. This column argues that the task of the G20 is to revamp international economic cooperation and to promote…
    - 14 hours ago 20 Jul 18, 12:00am -
  • !The transatlantic economy ten years after the crisis
    Ten years after the global crisis, transatlantic relationships are at a crossroads. This column summarises a conference jointly organised by the New York Fed, the European Commission, and CEPR at which the participants discussed the strength of curre…
    - 14 hours ago 20 Jul 18, 12:00am -
  • !The case for supporting renewable electricity
    The cost of supporting the production of renewable energy seems eye-watering. This column argues, however, that the alternative of a future energy system lacking the benefits of low-cost zero-carbon technologies is even more costly. While most renewa…
    - 14 hours ago 20 Jul 18, 12:00am -
  • !European regional inequality
    Inequality between Europe's regions has risen in the last few decades. Joan Rosés and Nikolaus Wolf discuss their research on inequality at both the personal and regional levels across Europe in the last century. Rising regional inequality is one f…
    - 14 hours ago 20 Jul 18, 12:00am -
  • Innovative startup firms and the patent system
    Patent protection is assumed to benefit entrepreneurs seeking investment, because patents signal quality and are an asset that can be resold if a startup fails. This column argues that the evidence for these benefits is inconclusive. Notably, patents…
    - 2 days ago 19 Jul 18, 12:00am -


  • !Political Correctness in San Francisco, by Scott Sumner
    It seems that San Francisco is changing the name of a street. The street is currently named after a racist former mayor. Henceforth it will be named after a Stalinist artist:The San Francisco Board of Supervisors unanimously voted yesterday to chang…
    - 41 mins ago 20 Jul 18, 1:16pm -
  • !MAGAnomics: a 500 Day Appraisal, by Thomas Firey
    A few weeks ago, the Trump administration surpassed its 500th day in office. Over that time, the President and his staff have been able to develop and refine their “Make America Great Again” economic agenda, pursue long-term policy goals, and to…
    - 21 hours ago 19 Jul 18, 5:25pm -
  • Firm Functionalism, by Bryan Caplan
    “My dear Martin, yet once more Pangloss was right: all is for the best.” – CandideI have little sympathy for the Panglossian view that the status quo is socially optimal – or even socially satisfactory.  When I look at the world, I see vici…
    - 2 days ago 18 Jul 18, 6:33pm -
  • Missing Something About Populism?, by Pierre Lemieux
    Have we—“we” meaning students of social science and those who value individual liberty—learned something from the current populist movements in the world, and especially that which we observe with our own eyes right here in America? I suggest…
    - 3 days ago 17 Jul 18, 2:51pm -
  • Is Fed policy too easy or too tight?, by Scott Sumner
    Now that the Fed is gradually raising interest rates, there’s a lot of discussion of whether policy is too easy or too tight. I don’t have strong views either way on this question, as current policy seems reasonably appropriate to me. But I also…
    - 3 days ago 17 Jul 18, 12:05pm -