NYT - Economy

Bloomberg View

Calculated Risk

  • !Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
    By request, here is an update to the chart showing market performance under Presidents Trump and Obama.Note: I don't think the stock market is a great measure of policy performance, but some people do - and I'm having a little fun with them.There are…
    - 3 hours ago 24 Jun 18, 2:03pm -
  • Schedule for Week of June 24, 2018
    The key economic reports this week are May New Home Sales and the third estimate of Q1 GDP.Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays for May, and Case-Shiller house prices for April.For manufacturing, the Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas C…
    - 1 day ago 23 Jun 18, 12:11pm -
  • Duy: "No, A Recession Is Not Likely In The Next Twelve Months"
    A few excerpts from Professor Tim Duy at Fed Watch: No, A Recession Is Not Likely In The Next Twelve Months. Why Do You Ask? Headlines blared the latest recession warning today, this time from David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff & Associates. The culpri…
    - 2 days ago 22 Jun 18, 4:33pm -
  • Q2 GDP Forecasts
    From Merrill Lynch:We continue to track 3.7% for 2Q GDP growth [June 22 estimate].emphasis addedAnd from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.7 perce…
    - 2 days ago 22 Jun 18, 3:19pm -
  • Merrill: "The cost of a trade war"
    A few excerpts from a research note by Merrill Lynch economists: The cost of a trade war Early this week, trade tensions ratcheted up another notch. President Trump announced that he has directed the US Trade Representative to prepare another round o…
    - 2 days ago 22 Jun 18, 12:53pm -

The Undercover Economist

  • The best way to solve problems is to wait for a century or two
    In 1928, an anonymous donor resolved to clear the UK’s national debt and gave £500,000 with that end in mind. It was a tidy sum — almost £30m at today’s prices — but not nearly enough to pay off the debt. So it sat in trust, accumulating in…
    - 2 days ago 22 Jun 18, 11:11am -
  • Bread, Brexit, and the power of the third option
    Written for and first published in the Financial Times on 18 May 2018. Imagine that you sell bread-making machines. Your task is complicated by the fact that most people have only a hazy grasp of what a bread-making machine does, let alone the joys a…
    - 9 days ago 15 Jun 18, 10:50am -
  • Why it’s important to gather the evidence – but easy to forget it even then
    Written for and first published in the Financial Times on 11 May 2018. It is hard to know which is more frustrating: last week’s announcement that over the past nine years, 450,000 British women were accidentally not invited for breast cancer scree…
    - 16 days ago 8 Jun 18, 11:51am -
  • The best economics podcasts in 2018
    My favourites are: NPR’s Planet Money remains an outstanding show, with stories, humour, very clear explanations and high production values. But – horrors! – they’ve poached the amazing Cardiff Garcia from the FT, and Cardiff is co-presentin…
    - 19 days ago 5 Jun 18, 11:06am -
  • Cheap innovations are often better than magical ones
    Written for and first published in the Financial Times on 4 May 2018 If you type “technology indis…” into Google, you are instantly directed to a webpage discussing Arthur C Clarke’s third law: “any sufficiently advanced technology is indis…
    - 23 days ago 1 Jun 18, 11:58am -

Marginal Revolution

  • !What should I ask Claire Lehmann?
    I will be doing a Conversation with her (no associated public event), if you don’t already know here is Wikipedia on Claire: Claire Lehmann is an Australian psychologist, writer, and the founding editor of Quillette. Lehmann founded Quillette in Oc…
    - 1 hour ago 24 Jun 18, 3:45pm -
  • !Sunday assorted links
    1. IMELDA. 2. Ball design for the World Cup. 3. Yet further dissolution of the Fermi paradox. 4. The economics of posting fake reviews on Amazon. 5. National narcissism. 6. Woke Support Group sketch.The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on M…
    - 6 hours ago 24 Jun 18, 10:57am -
  • !Final installment of stochastically best books to read on each country
    These are past suggestions from MR readers, pulled from the comments, endorsed by me only on a stochastic basis: Michela Wrong, Eritrea Rwanda: something Prunier, probably Rwanda Crisis though it stops in 1996 Uganda: Season of Thomas Tebo, though it…
    - 13 hours ago 24 Jun 18, 4:02am -
  • !Kenneth Arrow says
    1. The family of development economist Hollis Chenery owned the race horse Secretariat (!, related sources). 2. The opposition to putting the Reagan Library at Hoover and Stanford came from NIMBY considerations, not ideology. 3. The historian of Germ…
    - 16 hours ago 24 Jun 18, 1:03am -
  • Saturday assorted links
    1. “We can then conclude that, under the parameters used for those simulations, a minimum crew of 98 settlers is needed for a 6,300-year multi-generational space journey towards Proxima Centauri b,…” 2. Ahem to this headline…: “Italy’s E…
    - 1 day ago 23 Jun 18, 3:01pm -

Beat The Press

Paul Krugman

Economists View

  • Links
    Brexit Versus Trumpit (Wonkish) - Paul Krugman Once Cut, Corporate Income Taxes Are Hard to Restore - Robert Shiller A lucky boy from a golden age of economics - Nicholas Gruen Who’s Afraid of a Flattening Yield Curve? - Uneasy...
    - 1 day ago 23 Jun 18, 4:07pm -
  • Problem with Comments
    There was a problem with comments I didn't notice until today (don't think anyone could comment). Hopefully it is fixed.
    - 3 days ago 21 Jun 18, 4:15pm -
  • Links
    Alongside rising top incomes, the level of living of America’s poorest has fallen - VoxEU Interview with Marianne Bertrand - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis What Does "Serious" Mean? - Stephen Williamson The Devil and Tom Donohue - Paul Krugman…
    - 4 days ago 20 Jun 18, 5:47pm -
  • Links
    It’s time for Identity Portability – Digitopoly Equitable Growth in Conversation: Michael Strain - Equitable Growth Unions Did Great Things for the Working Class - Noah Smith More Permissive Zoning Codes Could Make Workers Richer - Regulatory Rev…
    - 10 days ago 14 Jun 18, 5:54pm -
  • Links
    O Canada - Brad Setser A Quisling and His Enablers - Paul Krugman The Transferunion fantasy - Thomas Piketty Sustained growth and the increase in work hours - Growth Economics A Tale of Three Nominal GDP Growth Paths - Macro...
    - 12 days ago 12 Jun 18, 6:29pm -

Naked Capitalism

Liberty Street Economics

  • At the New York Fed: Conference on the Effects of Post-Crisis Banking Reforms
    The financial crisis of 2007-08 and the ensuing recession, the most severe since the 1930s, prompted a wave of regulatory reforms: tighter bank capital and liquidity rules, new failed bank resolution procedures, a stand-alone consumer protection agen…
    - 5 days ago 19 Jun 18, 11:00am -
  • Hey, Economist! Outgoing New York Fed President Bill Dudley on FOMC Preparation and Thinking Like an Economist
    Bill Dudley will soon turn over the keys to the vault—so to speak. But before his tenure in office ends after nine years as president of the New York Fed, Liberty Street Economics caught up with him to capture his parting reflections on economic r…
    - 23 days ago 1 Jun 18, 11:00am -
  • Good News, Leverage, and Sudden Stops
    One of the major debates in open economy macroeconomics is the extent to which capital inflows are beneficial for growth. In principle, these flows allow countries to increase their consumption and investment spending beyond their income by enabling…
    - 25 days ago 30 May 18, 11:00am -
  • Mixed Impacts of the Federal Tax Reform on Consumer Expectations
    The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 changed the tax brackets, tax rates, credits and deductions for individuals and similarly altered corporate tax rates, deductions and exclusions. In this post, we examine whether the reform has shifted individuals’…
    - 32 days ago 23 May 18, 11:00am -
  • Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity
    The availability of large data sets, combined with advances in the fields of statistics, machine learning, and econometrics, have generated interest in forecasting models that include many possible predictive variables. Are economic data sufficiently…
    - 34 days ago 21 May 18, 11:00am -


  • Should We Really Behave Like Economists Say We Do? (Rebroadcast)
    Season 7, Episode 12  You have perhaps come across the phrase homo economicus, which describes a model for human behavior as seen through the lens of economics. In this hour, you’ll hear Freakonomics Radio producer Greg Rosalsky embark on a long a…
    - 23 Nov 17, 11:00pm -
  • Is America Ready for a “No-Lose Lottery”? (Update)
    Most people don’t enjoy the simple, boring act of putting money in a savings account. But we do love to play the lottery. So what if you combine the two, creating a new kind of savings account with a lottery payout? The post Is America Ready for a…
    - 23 Nov 17, 4:00am -
  • An Astronaut, a Catalan, and Two Linguists Walk Into a Bar…: TMSIDK Episode 36
    Why New York has skinny skyscrapers, how to weaponize water, and what astronauts talk about in space. John McWhorter is co-host; Bari Weiss is live fact-checker.The post An Astronaut, a Catalan, and Two Linguists Walk Into a Bar…: TMSIDK Episode 3…
    - 20 Nov 17, 1:00am -
  • Why Doesn’t Everyone Get the Flu Vaccine?
    Season 7, Episode 11 This week on Freakonomics Radio: what if there were a small step you could take that would prevent you from getting sick, stop you from missing work, and help ensure you won’t play a part in killing babies, the sick, and the e…
    - 16 Nov 17, 11:00pm -
  • Nurses to the Rescue!
    They are the most-trusted profession in America (and with good reason). They are critical to patient outcomes (especially in primary care). Could the growing army of nurse practitioners be an answer to the doctor shortage? The data say yes but — b…
    - 16 Nov 17, 4:55am -

Conversable Economist

  • Happiness Around the World--And For Migrants
    The utilititarian philosopher Jeremy Bentham wrote of a "sacred truth — that the greatest happiness of the greatest number is the foundation of morals and legislation." The World Happiness Report 2018   is edited by John F. Helliwell, Richard La…
    - 2 days ago 22 Jun 18, 2:47pm -
  • The Dramatic Expansion of Corporate Bonds
    Overall world debt in the last year or two is at its all-time high as a share of world GDP. But there is common pattern that as countries grow and their financial markets develop, their level of debt also tends to rise. Perhaps even more interesting…
    - 3 days ago 21 Jun 18, 4:38pm -
  • Interview with Marianne Bertrand: Inequality, Gender Norms, Skills
    Douglas Clement has an "Interview with Marianne Bertrand," subtitled "University of Chicago economist on the glass ceiling, implications of growing inequality and the trouble with boys" (The Region, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, online June 1…
    - 4 days ago 20 Jun 18, 1:00pm -
  • Thaler on the Evolution of Behavioral Economics
    Richard Thaler won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2017  "for his contributions to behavioural economics.  He tells the story of how the field evolved from early musings through small-scale tests and more comprehensive theories and all the way to…
    - 5 days ago 19 Jun 18, 3:00pm -
  • Autonomous Vehicles: Here's One Crystal Ball
    When it comes to peering ahead into the autonomous vehicle future, some crystal balls are better than others. I recommend the recent report written for a group called SAFE by Charles Carson, Erica Groshen, Susan Helper, John Paul MacDuffie, W. David…
    - 9 days ago 15 Jun 18, 4:00pm -

The Economist

VOX - CEPR's Policy Portal

  • !Gender, informal employment, and trade liberalisation in Mexico
    Trade liberalisation has been shown to affect formality rates in labout markets. This column exploits the Mexican trade liberalisation episode in the 1990s, to explore the labour market impact of reductions in import tariffs across gender and secto…
    - 17 hours ago 24 Jun 18, 12:00am -
  • What imperial preference can teach us about post-Brexit trade deals
    Brexit has sparked interest in trade agreements between Britain and the Commonwealth. This has a precedent in the Edwardian era, when the Dominions adopted policies of imperial preference toward imports from Britain. This column argues that New Zeala…
    - 2 days ago 23 Jun 18, 12:00am -
  • What to do with missing payments to factors of production
    Comparing US GDP to the sum of standard measures of payments to labour and imputations of payments to capital results in a large and volatile residual term. Using US data, this column argues that this ‘factorless income’ does not entirely reflect…
    - 3 days ago 22 Jun 18, 12:00am -
  • The delicious question: What can we learn from Bretton Woods?
    The issue of how to reform the EU is well discussed in research and policy. But through which institutions and in which order these reforms should take place is less well debated. Nauro Campos discusses the role of Europe’s institutions in its succ…
    - 3 days ago 22 Jun 18, 12:00am -
  • Women, work, and socialism
    Attitudes towards work and gender simultaneously shape, and are shaped by, the conventions, practices, and policies in a given place and time. This column explores how politico-economic regimes affect attitudes towards gender roles and labour, exploi…
    - 3 days ago 22 Jun 18, 12:00am -


  • !What causes recessions and “empressions”?
    Before starting this post, let me highly recommend George Selgin’s recent post on NGDP targeting.Nick Rowe has a post discussing a scenario where a lack of media of exchange disrupts trade, without affecting employment and output:I would call tha…
    - 18 hours ago 23 Jun 18, 11:01pm -
  • A Mythical Micro Meeting
    I recently discussed the teaching of Ph.D. Microeconomics with a noted professor in a top five econ department.  His bottom line: The curriculum is virtually the same as it was when I took Ph.D. Micro a quarter century ago.  Among active researcher…
    - 2 days ago 22 Jun 18, 3:40pm -
  • Is economic nationalism even possible?
    A great deal of ink has been spilled about the causes and consequences of the recent rise in economic nationalism. Maybe it’s time to step back and ask whether economic nationalism is even possible in the modern world.The Economist has an interest…
    - 3 days ago 21 Jun 18, 7:59pm -
  • Henderson on Radical Markets
    In Radical Markets, University of Chicago law professor Eric Posner and Microsoft senior researcher Glen Weyl propose a radical restructuring of property rights, immigration policy, and voting, as well as a substantial change in corporate law. Their…
    - 3 days ago 21 Jun 18, 5:25pm -
  • The Illusory Arbitrariness of Deploring?
    I’ve previously argued that public deploring is exceedingly arbitrary.  The “outrages” we hear about on the news – the outrages that “We cannot tolerate!” – are usually no worse than dozens of other problems that we barely acknowledge…
    - 4 days ago 20 Jun 18, 7:38pm -